B1 Modals of Deduction: Expressing Certainty and Possibility — B1 English grammar lesson by Langcom

B1 Modals of Deduction: Expressing Certainty and Possibility

劳尔-马吉尼亚

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9 月 16, 2026

B1✏️ 语法⏱️ 阅读时间 4 分钟📅 更新于 2026 年 9 月
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Modals of deduction help us make educated guesses or conclusions about situations when we are not 100% sure. They allow you to express how certain you are about something happening now or in the future. 我们使用 must when we are almost certain something is true, based on strong evidence. For example, She looks tired, so she must be working hard. When we think something is possible but not certain, we use might, may, 或 could. 例如,, He isn’t answering, he might be busy. Finally, if we are almost certain something is NOT true or impossible, we use can’t. An example is That can’t be John, he’s on holiday. These modals are essential for expressing probability in English conversations.

What Are Modals of Deduction?

Modals of deduction are special verbs that help us make guesses or draw conclusions about situations. We use them when we don’t have all the facts but can use evidence to decide how likely something is.

These modals are different from modals of obligation (must for rules) or permission (can for ability). Here, they are about how certain you feel about a situation.

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How Do We Use Must for Certainty?

我们使用 must when we are almost 100% sure that something is true. We have strong evidence or a logical reason to believe it.

  • Meaning: I am almost certain it is true.
  • Certainty Level: High (90-100%)
  • Structure: Subject + must + base form of the verb

When Do We Use Might, May, , 和 Could for Possibility?

我们使用 might, may, 或 could when we think something is possible, but we are not very certain. They all have a similar meaning for deduction.

  • Meaning: It is possible; I am not sure.
  • Certainty Level: Medium (30-70%)
  • Structure: Subject + might/may/could + base form of the verb

May is sometimes considered slightly more formal than mightcould, but for deduction, they are often interchangeable.

How Do We Use Can't for Impossibility?

我们使用 can't when we are almost 100% sure that something is NOT true or impossible. We have strong evidence against it.

  • Meaning: I am almost certain it is not true or impossible.
  • Certainty Level: Very Low (0-10%)
  • Structure: Subject + can't + base form of the verb

Summarizing Certainty Levels

Here is a quick summary of the certainty levels for these modals:

  • Must: Almost 100% sure it's true.
  • Might / May / Could: Possible, but not certain (30-70% sure).
  • Can't: Almost 100% sure it's not true or impossible.
Summary of Modals of Deduction and Certainty Levels
Modal Verb Meaning (Deduction) Certainty Level
Must Almost certain it is true High (90-100%)
Might / May / Could It is possible, not certain Medium (30-70%)
Can't Almost certain it is not true / impossible Very Low (0-10%)

示例

  • The lights are off; they must be out.
  • She's wearing a coat, so it must be cold outside.
  • He hasn't arrived yet; he might be stuck in traffic.
  • That could be Maria, but I'm not sure.
  • It may rain later, so take an umbrella.
  • You just ate; you can't be hungry already!
  • That can't be his car; his is red.

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西班牙语母语者常犯的错误

Spanish speakers sometimes make specific mistakes with modals of deduction:

  • 令人困惑 must for deduction with must for obligation: In Spanish, 'deber' can mean both. In English, must for deduction means 'I am almost certain', not 'it is necessary'.
    错误: You must study hard for the exam. (Obligation)
    正确: She's always reading; she must love books. (Deduction)
  • 使用 mustn't for negative deduction: Mustn't means 'it is forbidden' or 'you should not'. For negative deduction (it's impossible), always use can't.
    错误: That mustn't be true.
    正确: That can't be true.
  • 添加 maybe before a modal of possibility: This is redundant because the modal already expresses possibility.
    错误: Maybe he might come later.
    正确: He might come later.

常见问题

两者之间的主要区别是什么? might, may, , 和 could for deduction?

For deduction, might, may, , 和 could are very similar and often interchangeable. They all express a possibility. May can be slightly more formal.

我可以使用 mustn't for negative deductions?

No. Mustn't means prohibition (e.g., You mustn't smoke here.). For negative deductions, meaning something is impossible or certainly not true, you must use can't (例如,, That can't be right.).

What is the difference between must (deduction) and have to?

Must for deduction means you are almost certain something is true based on evidence (e.g., He must be tired.). Have to expresses obligation or necessity (e.g., I have to go now.).

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关于作者:劳尔·马吉尼亚

劳尔·马吉尼亚是Langcom教育协会的主任,该协会是位于 您的国家. 凭借在语言教育和国际认证领域十余年的经验,他已帮助来自25个国家的数千名学生、教师和教育机构考取了剑桥英语证书以及IELTS、TOEFL和Michigan英语证书。.

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